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Markets Today 

  • S&P 500 (SPY): +2.52%
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): +2.20%
  • Dow Jones (DIA): +2.20%
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): +1.79%
  • Volatility Index (VIX): -2.71%
  • Apple (AAPL): +3.28%
  • Tesla (TSLA): +9.35%
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): +4.32%
  • Meta Platforms (META): -4.09%
  • Revlon (REV): +62.47%
  • Grab (GRAB): +15.88%
  • DaVita (DVA): -15.01%
  • Office Depot (ODP): -14.60%
  • Netflix (NFLX): -2.62%

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Summary

US stocks jumped on Tuesday following the extended weekend, with equities recouping some of the losses suffered last week, the S&P 500’s (SPY) worst week since March 2020. The SPY jumped 2.52% after plunging -5.8% last week while the Nasdaq (QQQ) jumped 2.5%. The benchmark 10-year rose, briefly breaching the 3.3% mark, while the price of oil resumed its march higher to over $111 a barrel. 

Today’s broad market rally serves as a brief respite following weeks of heavy selling as the market digests larger-than-normal hikes to the interest rate and the increased possibility of an impending recession. Last Wednesday, the Fed unleashed a 75 basis point increase to the interest rate and signaled it would need to further tighten, even at the expense of short-term economic growth, to battle the fastest pace of inflation in forty years. Looking ahead, on Wednesday Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver his semi-annual testimony before Congress. 

A number of major Wall Street firms have downgraded their growth forecasts over the past several days to reflect mounting uncertainty and the increased likelihood of a recession. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, though the final call is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Economists at Bank of America wrote, “The most likely outlook is very weak growth and persistently high inflation. We see roughly a 40% chance of a recession next year. Our worst fears around the Fed have been confirmed: they fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up.”

Others are even more bearish, with Deutsche’s Bank bear case calling for a recession to begin in the third quarter of 2023 following growth of just 1.2% in 2022. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients, “now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded” and raised the probability of recession from 15% to 30%. 

The risks of a formal recession could potentially push the markets further down, even after the SPY -22% year-to-date haircut. According to a report by LPL Financial, . The S&P 500’s bear market slides since World War II have averaged 29.6% with an average duration of 11.4 months. However, when a bear market coincides with a recession, the SPY tends to fall an average of 34.8%.

Highlights

  • Kellogg’s (K) stock rose after the company announced it planned to split into three separate companies. The newly spun out firms will comprise a separate global snack foods company, a North American cereal firm, and pure-play plant-based foods company.
  • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said the company’s headcount would be reduced by just 3.5%, much less than originally expected. Musk confirmed that 10% of salaried workers at Tesla would be cut over the next three months, but that ongoing hiring would keep the net reduction to just 3-3.5% of the firm’s overall workforce, he told Bloomberg News Tuesday.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above $21,000 after a cryptocurrency rout briefly sent prices below $18,000 for the first time since December 2020 over the weekend. 
  • Tesla (TSLA) easily tops the list of the automakers with the most cars produced in America.
  • Former President Barack Obama struck an exclusive podcasting deal with Amazon”s (AMZN) Audible platforms, a move that comes shortly after Spotify (SPOT did not extend an existing agreement.)
  • The United States and Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc have settled a lawsuit over a housing advertising system that illegally discriminated against Facebook users based on race and other characteristics, the Department of Justice said on Tuesday.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) on Tuesday said it would stop selling technology that guesses someone’s emotion based on a facial image and would no longer provide unfettered access to facial recognition technology.
  • Twitter’s (TWTR) board of directors unanimously voted to approve the sale of the company to Elon Musk. 

“For every minute you are angry, you lose sixty seconds of happiness.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson